Fifa International · resolved market
Will Guinea vs. Benin end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd78338a7703d469b670a59e4dd705e034c4235fb1e64a97d625ba8d1a058a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 3,085$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.05 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 1,420$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.95 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 900.17$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.06 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 405.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.17 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 395.8$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 38c | 334.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 25c | 193.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 28c | 157.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…fcd8backed Yes | 38c | 133.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Yes | 39c | 123.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Yes | 23c | 92.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 68c | 88.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 31c | 81.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 450 | 39.6%178 W · 272 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 76.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…b2aebacked Yes | 38c | 76.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed No | 73c | 74.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 30c | 62.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 459 | 47.7%219 W · 240 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…61fdbacked Yes | 22c | 57.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 69c | 56.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…35f7backed Yes | 22c | 56.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +6.6wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…cf19backed Yes | 31c | 50.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 30c | 45.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 44.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 68c | 42.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 69c | 32.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 24.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Guinea vs. Benin end in a draw?this page
- Will Benin win on 2026-03-31?Yes won
- Will Guinea win on 2026-03-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.