Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8c250ec782a39b8ed8f6d50c6cf4f43cf00b3bb32eea5710ac574ec5f56443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 80c | 7,484$5,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.41 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 4,516$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.65 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 21c | 2,826$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.55 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes | 76c | 937$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 18c | 555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 79c | 541.94$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 28c | 509.95$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 77c | 415.65$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 18c | 327.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 8c | 296.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 16c | 293.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 72c | 261.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 18c | 249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 5c | 247.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 21c | 214.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed No | 18c | 208.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 21c | 192.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 16c | 184.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 17c | 173.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 18c | 162$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 19c | 155$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Yes | 75c | 134.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed No | 18c | 105.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 55c | 104.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 24c | 101.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 15c | 95.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 54c | 71.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Yes | 80c | 62.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 20c | 56.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 21c | 53.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 56c | 49.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Yes | 53c | 49.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 74c | 45.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 27c | 37.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 74c | 25.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Yes | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 23.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0a2dbacked Yes | 79c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Yes | 76c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will AFC Ajax vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad end in a draw?No won
- Will FK Vojvodina Novi Sad win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.