Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde3286a5c82b2ca706d85bf3d52833b14f7d88c33871b2cefcd1e2b4d8dcbcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 393.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 305.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 293.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 291.16$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 206.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 198.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 147.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 142$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 138.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 136.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 10c | 126.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 122.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 118.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 106.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 75c | 95.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 81.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 79c | 76.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 40c | 75.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 21c | 68.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 20c | 67.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 38c | 65.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 65.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 35c | 63.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 42c | 60.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 56.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 43c | 55.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 53.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 20c | 49.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…e0d4backed Yes | 33c | 41.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 40c | 34.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 34.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 33.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…f521backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 51c | 29.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 28.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 27.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 22.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 17.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 79c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.