Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf90c94ae14d129528c8fa9f97dace87cb146baf0f6571d11006487c4aa821844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 1,396$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 438.93$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 278.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 266.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 70c | 247.26$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 193$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 191.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 141.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 31c | 139.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 19c | 135.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 133.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 11c | 96.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 67c | 95.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 32c | 93.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 92.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 90.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 19c | 88.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 86.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 84.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 28c | 81.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 80.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 73.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 69.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 31c | 69.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 66.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cd77backed Yes | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 57.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 56.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 44.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 41.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 69c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 72c | 38.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 32c | 36.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 35.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 72c | 28.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 24.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 22.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 71c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0406…944ebacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.