Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x598bd4512ed0c6c8f9cf481f159365db970a584cfc213dbb259e64729d2e7528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 13c | 357.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 305.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 21c | 289.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 284.69$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 22c | 282.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 265.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…cc2bbacked Yes | 35c | 213.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 8c | 194.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 175.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 168.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 151.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 147.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 124.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 122.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 120.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 114.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 67c | 114.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 112.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 10c | 111.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 107.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 101.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 41c | 98.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 39c | 96.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 88.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…4501backed Yes | 35c | 86.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 16c | 83.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 35c | 69.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 66.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 64.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 60.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 35c | 58.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 69c | 56.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 31c | 50.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 47.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 44.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 44.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 30c | 44.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 32c | 43.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 42.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 37c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 32c | 39.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 33c | 38.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked No | 66c | 38.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 36.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 31.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1e43backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 63c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fa…b925backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 67c | 18.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.