Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Bald (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf135a5c2fc6d56b1d39d7d4e69f99d4b18f62b9271a96ce9b9a634fec15b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Baldof Team Bald, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Team Bald | 42c | 6,070$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534.68 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 3,000$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.75 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Bald | 40c | 2,470$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.24 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 2,083$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.87 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 2,000$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed VP.Prodigy | 59c | 1,717$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.49 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Bald | 38c | 1,160$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.4 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffda…c1fcbacked VP.Prodigy | 59c | 645.23$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked VP.Prodigy | 59c | 545$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked VP.Prodigy | 69c | 508.23$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.68 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 495$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.95 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked VP.Prodigy | 62c | 282.01$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.28 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed Team Bald | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 238.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed Team Bald | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 190$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 136.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 115.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Bald | 33c | 90.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Team Bald | 41c | 72.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Team Bald | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked VP.Prodigy | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 44.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Team Bald | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 40.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Team Bald | 78c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked VP.Prodigy | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Bald (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Bald won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 WinnerTeam Bald won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 WinnerTeam Bald won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.