TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Baldof VP.Prodigy, Team Bald
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,381
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,381 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Bald58c27,733$16,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,714.071,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed VP.Prodigy42c15,288$6,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,348.3671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed VP.Prodigy43c10,108$4,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,298.8643344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Bald54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.9847146.1%217 W · 254 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked VP.Prodigy47c5,995$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8291,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed VP.Prodigy10c3,004$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1733453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked VP.Prodigy39c2,812$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.881,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed VP.Prodigy36c2,733$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.4731248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked VP.Prodigy42c2,369$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.889341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed VP.Prodigy35c2,285$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80030356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked VP.Prodigy36c2,200$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.9722031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Bald61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.9979559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy40c1,807$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.992,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed VP.Prodigy40c1,789$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.1733041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed Team Bald60c1,719$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.810075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed VP.Prodigy36c1,650$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.0954246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Team Bald77c1,615$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4330667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked VP.Prodigy19c1,608$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.561,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed VP.Prodigy4c1,521$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60375.4%2 W · 35 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed VP.Prodigy41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.9960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed VP.Prodigy39c1,412$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23c…0a8abacked VP.Prodigy2c1,144$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed VP.Prodigy6c1,133$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.753243.1%10 W · 314 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked VP.Prodigy51c1,100$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.8632548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed VP.Prodigy27c1,019$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7367932.5%221 W · 458 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked VP.Prodigy42c1,004$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.7169235.3%244 W · 448 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed VP.Prodigy1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy47c999.99$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.951,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Bald55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed VP.Prodigy11c905.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.712548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed VP.Prodigy23c881.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009555.8%53 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed VP.Prodigy36c859.11$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1229043.4%126 W · 164 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed VP.Prodigy50c858$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42928347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Team Bald60c849.98$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.4934442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Team Bald64c846.13$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.140933%135 W · 274 L-36.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed VP.Prodigy40c837.53$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked VP.Prodigy24c797.28$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7732756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed VP.Prodigy38c793.05$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.741,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed VP.Prodigy19c790.55$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed VP.Prodigy21c781.09$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7845352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked VP.Prodigy39c729.84$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.6427345.8%125 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked VP.Prodigy44c727.1$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9294442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked VP.Prodigy37c710.81$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26326843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed VP.Prodigy42c707.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Team Bald58c684.53$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.5347457.4%272 W · 202 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Bald60c658.38$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8844149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed VP.Prodigy37c649.52$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.323842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team Bald56c574.22$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.6613635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked VP.Prodigy36c544.46$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.611,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked VP.Prodigy45c537.49$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2439543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy45c527.83$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.41,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed VP.Prodigy13c494.85$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.097634.2%26 W · 50 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked VP.Prodigy39c460.88$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0256343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed VP.Prodigy42c456.63$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.031,25549.6%623 W · 632 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Bald76c450$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.177258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked VP.Prodigy14c400$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7331052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Team Bald75c399.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4114446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4b…c865backed VP.Prodigy38c394.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Team Bald74c392.78$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5448843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed VP.Prodigy32c382.47$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5425948.3%125 W · 134 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked VP.Prodigy23c380.41$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5190756.1%509 W · 398 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed VP.Prodigy35c366.07$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.719249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked VP.Prodigy30c364$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.213142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked VP.Prodigy28c321$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6666545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0452…843cbacked Team Bald77c319.13$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.553253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Team Bald58c308.84$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7158156.6%329 W · 252 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed VP.Prodigy24c278.61$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9813145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Bald77c274.44$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4490753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Team Bald75c270$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.531865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed Team Bald76c264.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.292653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbda…d2c0backed Team Bald58c262.26$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2610870.4%76 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked VP.Prodigy38c255.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.228538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked VP.Prodigy43c254.58$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.731,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed VP.Prodigy41c253.01$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1321540.9%88 W · 127 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed VP.Prodigy41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked VP.Prodigy43c242.07$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6831953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Team Bald71c230.9$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.897964.6%51 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed VP.Prodigy45c220.27$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4434041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed VP.Prodigy45c212$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2317443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed VP.Prodigy42c206.58$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0235948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6334…6fa3backed VP.Prodigy49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed VP.Prodigy20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed VP.Prodigy47c200$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9574549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Bald66c197.03$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2565647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd241…6c35backed VP.Prodigy23c183.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.13658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed Team Bald56c177.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.668647.7%41 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d6…423dbacked VP.Prodigy17c172.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.283151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Team Bald59c162.7$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.47251.4%37 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…ed87backed Team Bald64c157.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.681650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked VP.Prodigy43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6522240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Team Bald57c149.98$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4933165.3%216 W · 115 L+23.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked VP.Prodigy12c146.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5828336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Team Bald60c132.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.662458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked VP.Prodigy38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked VP.Prodigy44c125$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2530844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed VP.Prodigy44c125$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5562841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2230…c3b7backed VP.Prodigy43c125$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.752839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3def…1169backed VP.Prodigy15c121.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9660%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70cf…1b41backed VP.Prodigy23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63650%18 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed VP.Prodigy47c112.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1719053.2%101 W · 89 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.