TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Baldof VP.Prodigy, Team Bald
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,182 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Bald61c28,166$17,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,865.661,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed VP.Prodigy39c12,924$5,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,091.4121155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Bald61c11,403$6,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,488.241,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked VP.Prodigy19c8,594$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.21,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed VP.Prodigy13c6,427$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.0871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked VP.Prodigy24c6,337$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed VP.Prodigy36c6,000$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.9915144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde90…d417backed Team Bald80c4,500$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed VP.Prodigy19c3,814$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.7438855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked VP.Prodigy42c3,750$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.8880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked VP.Prodigy38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Bald66c2,911$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy32c2,431$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.632,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed VP.Prodigy11c2,395$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.6865625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed VP.Prodigy11c1,265$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6132441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed VP.Prodigy42c1,226$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.0760349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed VP.Prodigy38c1,131$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.6428347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed VP.Prodigy37c1,030$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.6429243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy37c1,000$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.881,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed VP.Prodigy1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed VP.Prodigy43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed VP.Prodigy35c840.24$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.3371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy38c796$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.761,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed VP.Prodigy25c705.84$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1754246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked VP.Prodigy37c701.04$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.3895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed VP.Prodigy43c697$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7141455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed VP.Prodigy7c662.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.993323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Team Bald63c644.21$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.362171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked VP.Prodigy21c605.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6356343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Bald64c569.16$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.131,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked VP.Prodigy43c568.6$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Team Bald64c559.9$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.5614446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked VP.Prodigy21c555.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7699844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed VP.Prodigy11c550$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.467656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed VP.Prodigy24c524.39$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0391553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb87…eb45backed VP.Prodigy36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked VP.Prodigy38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19016147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked VP.Prodigy13c499.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed VP.Prodigy41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed VP.Prodigy36c482.8$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8143344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Bald74c470.27$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.447046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked VP.Prodigy30c460.88$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.521,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Bald79c419.82$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1660646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked VP.Prodigy18c400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed VP.Prodigy3c381.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4369132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed VP.Prodigy37c378.38$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Bald79c375.54$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.891,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Team Bald57c355.82$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15358356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked VP.Prodigy36c334.02$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.241,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed VP.Prodigy36c328.13$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1325150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Bald68c319.06$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.091,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Bald64c313.38$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8228544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed VP.Prodigy4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed VP.Prodigy28c297.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.441,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed VP.Prodigy9c293.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4433453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked VP.Prodigy42c284.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4111758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa23c…0a8abacked VP.Prodigy26c272.24$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed VP.Prodigy9c270.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6345352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed VP.Prodigy37c257.69$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.191,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Team Bald77c243.39$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2772154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…ed87backed Team Bald64c242.97$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.471650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked VP.Prodigy38c239.22$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed VP.Prodigy36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2274549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked VP.Prodigy21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4239351.1%201 W · 192 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed VP.Prodigy37c185.84$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7625359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69f8…2b2fbacked VP.Prodigy43c184.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed VP.Prodigy43c178.13$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.617757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed VP.Prodigy25c175$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.562841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed VP.Prodigy15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb085…7b10backed VP.Prodigy42c166.31$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.453756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Team Bald63c163.07$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.159344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed Team Bald64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.252653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Bald64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2546451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked VP.Prodigy23c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2530844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed VP.Prodigy20c147$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.456548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a12…a9a7backed VP.Prodigy10c144.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked VP.Prodigy39c140$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.244149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1c…8408backed VP.Prodigy37c139.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519046.7%42 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a8…d77fbacked VP.Prodigy22c137.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.694768.1%32 W · 15 L+7.1wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+28.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Team Bald80c137.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.513975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed VP.Prodigy36c127.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6319249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb695…f967backed VP.Prodigy22c112.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7914243%61 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed Team Bald75c109$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.256271%44 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed VP.Prodigy39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked Team Bald79c101.72$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3615551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked VP.Prodigy10c101.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0740534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Bald64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3653758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked VP.Prodigy12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9af1…7d5abacked VP.Prodigy39c93.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.641050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd181…6a2bbacked Team Bald72c90.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4817660.2%106 W · 70 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked VP.Prodigy36c90.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.481637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed VP.Prodigy20c85.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1717337.6%65 W · 108 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Team Bald62c80.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.397757.1%44 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked VP.Prodigy17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.922240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Team Bald67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.149644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Team Bald64c63.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.937251.4%37 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Team Bald59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.618356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed VP.Prodigy33c58.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4613635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Team Bald64c51.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5437851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47a…67fabacked VP.Prodigy44c51.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.