NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf2397127b873f938a6912318b1dff1336569f6382c58b470ba4d0142297efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 51c | 39,955$20,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,350.8 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 10,500$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…644bbacked Over | 42c | 9,404$3,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,947.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…5e06backed Under | 52c | 9,392$4,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,537.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 6,746$3,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.18 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 6,534$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,228.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 63c | 5,510$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.8 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.31 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 49c | 756.47$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.8 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 49c | 648$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.48 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 49c | 484$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 402.23$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 169$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 52.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…25e1backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…f828backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Jazz won
- Timberwolves vs. JazzTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.