NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4937643e46c66b85d4a6217f75204853adbc97aabd9542df910b76ece3470c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Timberwolves, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz | 50c | 6,257$3,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.71 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 48c | 4,806$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Timberwolves | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jazz | 50c | 3,489$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.5 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 51c | 2,118$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Jazz | 50c | 1,951$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.5 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Timberwolves | 51c | 1,844$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.58 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Jazz | 50c | 1,586$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.05 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Jazz | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jazz | 48c | 1,352$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.83 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 975.96$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Timberwolves | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Timberwolves | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 50c | 532.43$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves | 50c | 454$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Jazz | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Timberwolves | 53c | 374.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Jazz | 51c | 329.41$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 50c | 322.26$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Jazz | 50c | 319.02$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz | 48c | 311.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 46c | 274.07$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 229.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Jazz | 48c | 227.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…b895backed Timberwolves | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Timberwolves | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…4e24backed Jazz | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Timberwolves | 51c | 194.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Jazz | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Timberwolves | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Jazz | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Timberwolves | 52c | 88.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Timberwolves | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Timberwolves | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Timberwolves | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…6048backed Timberwolves | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Timberwolves | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Timberwolves | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Timberwolves | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Timberwolves | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…9fdfbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…25e1backed Timberwolves | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Jazz | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Timberwolves | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 138 | 31.2%43 W · 95 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Jazz won
- Timberwolves vs. JazzTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.