Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf605e361ccabe8bc1cd3a7701c877f723aa234c123081c210307ab45a3a0af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Salt Lakeof FC Dallas, Real Salt Lake
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Dallas | 19c | 3,147$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.39 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed FC Dallas | 19c | 1,230$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Dallas | 23c | 226.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked FC Dallas | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked FC Dallas | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Real Salt Lake | 78c | 124.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…4715backed FC Dallas | 16c | 89.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Real Salt Lake | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked FC Dallas | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Real Salt Lake | 74c | 49.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Real Salt Lake | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Real Salt Lake | 69c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: Real Salt Lake O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.