Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3748debafb84acea731127890a03ad0a491047efcdefa63de0d3dc65ff19fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cbe…1f4ebacked Under | 60c | 31,665$18,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,998.79 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Over | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.6wins | +0.40per pick | 46cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 40c | 9,224$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,534.4 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 59c | 2,083$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.75 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 41c | 2,061$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 1,555$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.13 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 1,306$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.54 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 769.07$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 40c | 673.34$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 40c | 437$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 40c | 437$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 40c | 263$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 78c | 233.86$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 60c | 231$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…96c6backed Under | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Over | 40c | 194.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 193.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Over | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 40c | 160$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 41c | 137.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 40c | 101.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 52c | 95.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 65c | 91.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 40c | 88.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 40c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 62.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 40c | 59.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 56.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 42c | 55.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 40c | 46.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…a65abacked Under | 61c | 44.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 52c | 31.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…07ddbacked Over | 40c | 29.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 40c | 28.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 52c | 19.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas: Real Salt Lake O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.