Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3610bda6c14c7d980afe58bbb11116a165f61ef7f819ac0cb1ea7adeef8aac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 23c | 687.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked No | 80c | 328.76$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…832fbacked No | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 283$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed Yes | 15c | 230.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 217.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 14c | 200.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 186.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 186.17$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 31c | 162.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 158.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 9c | 139.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 24c | 137.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 25c | 134.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed No | 69c | 132.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 130.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 116.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 26c | 105.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 98.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 13c | 97.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 43c | 65.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 69c | 56.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 72c | 56.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 34c | 54.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 35c | 54.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…00d4backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 45.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128d…261abacked Yes | 41c | 42.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 39.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…10fdbacked No | 72c | 38.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +2,066.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 55c | 35.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed Yes | 36c | 32.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 66c | 32.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 77c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 80c | 24.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…5e85backed No | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c76…91a0backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.