Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c29b5ec6633fde167098accddeba87596ab578f57b5eeefa60695946d25162a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 25c | 797.59$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked No | 13c | 761.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes | 75c | 585.55$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 2c | 497.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…832fbacked Yes | 75c | 433.75$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 73c | 321.47$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 79c | 293.56$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.53 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 289.14$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 13c | 286.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed Yes | 63c | 254.85$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 11c | 243.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 58c | 238.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 22c | 236.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 160.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 65c | 153.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 53c | 127.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 57c | 123.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 74c | 105.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 100.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 28c | 92.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 27c | 67.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…87babacked No | 78c | 61.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 60.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…4b7cbacked Yes | 48c | 59.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 57.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 53.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed No | 70c | 49.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed No | 63c | 44.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 44.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 73c | 32.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 73c | 32.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 31.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 46c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 71c | 21.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…10fdbacked Yes | 70c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +2,066.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.