Fifa International · resolved market
Will Tanzania win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce6285fc4b3075f57dbfc34e828e5d4aaae91a17c41cfbb144899475086464b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fae…5d6dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,492$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 4c | 13,914$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.4 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 4c | 5,119$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.31 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…fe1cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,554$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 5c | 4,290$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…5f14backed Yes | 5c | 2,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…5804backed Yes | 5c | 2,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…4396backed Yes | 3c | 1,777$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2e…e835backed Yes | 3c | 1,722$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Yes | 5c | 1,633$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,575$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb4…2268backed Yes | 1c | 1,451$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,412$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7652…c6c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,251$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,099$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc000…f0dfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,022$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 4c | 944.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 923.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 341 | 2.9%10 W · 331 L | -132.4wins | -0.39per pick | 42cpaid | -94%equal weight | 10-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 3c | 799.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 3c | 736.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 320 | 31.6%101 W · 219 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a9f5backed Yes | 5c | 728.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 4c | 681.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Yes | 4c | 647.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…6ea1backed Yes | 4c | 544.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…699abacked Yes | 7c | 528.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 4c | 516.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes | 4c | 505.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…e59fbacked Yes | 4c | 470.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 3c | 431$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…0144backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 4c | 358.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…5264backed Yes | 4c | 350.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Yes | 4c | 342.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 3c | 328$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed Yes | 4c | 325.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b79cbacked Yes | 4c | 313.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…ff2abacked Yes | 4c | 303.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tanzania win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Morocco vs. Tanzania end in a draw?No won
- Will Morocco win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.