Fifa International · resolved market
Will Israel vs. Moldova end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb2aef461b30b08c213652ee8a0a56acf7cf692fd4b88e851763bf1ccb862ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 1,749$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.14 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 19c | 985.27$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…fcf0backed Yes | 17c | 411.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 7c | 311.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Yes | 21c | 220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 21c | 180.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed No | 79c | 168.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 23c | 139.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 17c | 134.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 20c | 122.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 78c | 102.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 747 | 52.2%390 W · 357 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 22c | 102.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…e2f4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…9c3dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…46cebacked Yes | 27c | 92.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…631fbacked Yes | 17c | 75.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 72.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…d372backed Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…fb37backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel vs. Moldova end in a draw?this page
- Will Israel win on 2025-11-16?Yes won
- Will Moldova win on 2025-11-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.