Fifa International · resolved market
Will Moldova win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53b534c9b58749572ff9f89c7fa6b97b25d2121e47437d28ef392c61c58baf48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 1c | 106,212$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.12 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Yes | 15c | 5,999$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.92 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 5,693$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 5c | 1,291$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…dcb7backed Yes | 8c | 1,272$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 142 | 34.5%49 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce0…a1ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 18cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,050$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888a…7197backed Yes | 3c | 962.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 3c | 869$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 781$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes | 10c | 733.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 9c | 655.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…fcf0backed Yes | 4c | 550.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 11c | 520.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 11c | 430$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 5c | 300.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 4c | 299.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed Yes | 13c | 168.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 148.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb4…1011backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moldova win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will Israel vs. Moldova end in a draw?No won
- Will Israel win on 2025-11-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.