MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced358711910f206025610056a2ba6a44daf9b6298fbb8909be42423e9f3f58a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 1,926$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.96 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 51c | 1,783$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 1,274$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.12 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 63c | 1,180$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…9f7bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Athletics | 54c | 120.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Athletics | 30c | 98.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 63c | 92.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Athletics | 62c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.