MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4abc3b26e7e0fd10033c1a6433b5b7c1394e647f9f5f8452a0487ed2ad33fe7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 16,219$6,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,487.54 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Athletics | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 60c | 8,210$4,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,272.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 6,507$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 60c | 4,769$2,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 60c | 2,953$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.18 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 2,432$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Athletics | 61c | 1,937$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.43 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 1,625$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 1,625$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 1,601$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.23 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Athletics | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 80c | 1,080$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.91 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 1,024$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 60c | 1,017$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Athletics | 61c | 819$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.41 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 720.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Athletics | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.05 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 57c | 472.14$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 419.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Athletics | 58c | 399.83$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.93 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Athletics | 60c | 390$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 67c | 327.72$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 15c | 318.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 261.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 183.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 179.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Athletics | 60c | 175.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 169.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics | 59c | 158$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 60c | 126.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Athletics | 61c | 105.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Athletics | 50c | 99.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 98.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 84.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…536bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 18c | 78.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 14c | 78.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 68.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Athletics | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Athletics | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 78c | 51.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Athletics | 59c | 45.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…8d08backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 57c | 31.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 27.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Athletics | 72c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Athletics | 68c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Athletics | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Athletics | 60c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05e…1323backed Athletics | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 72c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.