Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee3d4636e50ea9c32cf0f8a770c07ed4a748b4ae11b90ddebd0863c8853c5f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Rinderknech, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Rinderknech | 58c | 604.02$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.88 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Michelsen | 52c | 592.3$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.88 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michelsen | 33c | 373.3$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Rinderknech | 64c | 303.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Rinderknech | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 132 | 37.9%50 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Rinderknech | 69c | 286.14$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Michelsen | 42c | 215.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michelsen | 42c | 208.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Michelsen | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Michelsen | 31c | 133.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Michelsen | 31c | 129.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Rinderknech | 63c | 107.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Rinderknech | 56c | 89.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Rinderknech | 61c | 80.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Rinderknech | 63c | 68.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…f174backed Rinderknech | 76c | 59.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Michelsen | 45c | 52.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Rinderknech | 65c | 51.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Rinderknech | 71c | 50.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 460 | 40%184 W · 276 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Rinderknech | 58c | 40.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Michelsen | 35c | 40.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Rinderknech | 68c | 39.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Michelsen | 38c | 33.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Rinderknech | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed Rinderknech | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 306 | 53.3%163 W · 143 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rinderknech | 59c | 20.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Michelsenthis page
- Arthur Rinderknech vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alex MichelsenArthur Rinderknech won
- Rinderknech vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rinderknech vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rinderknech vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)Rinderknech won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.