Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax beat Galatasaray?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf2238d7e138aa56fe10f9268b8ce9d3ae81bfa0237563f18c049f890232a171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffd6…9b1cbacked No | 60c | 83,241$49,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,948.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked Yes | 41c | 56,981$23,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,593.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 40c | 10,034$4,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,021.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes | 40c | 8,206$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,923.73 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 25c | 3,171$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.84 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Yes | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed Yes | 77c | 2,587$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 42c | 2,063$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.95 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 1c | 1,618$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 39c | 1,546$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.06 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed No | 40c | 1,441$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked No | 54c | 733.91$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 41c | 446.53$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.45 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 40c | 255$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes | 42c | 220.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Yes | 41c | 170.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 41c | 151.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe528…6385backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Yes | 63c | 61.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…4d82backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…bc58backed No | 59c | 37.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…6076backed No | 59c | 36.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…435bbacked No | 61c | 34.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…c87dbacked Yes | 39c | 33.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…c4d6backed Yes | 41c | 33.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…9ccfbacked Yes | 41c | 31.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…56bfbacked No | 61c | 29.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…ecacbacked Yes | 39c | 29.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b2f0backed Yes | 41c | 29.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe1…1226backed No | 61c | 29.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…fd30backed Yes | 41c | 28.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69e…1329backed No | 59c | 24.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0a…ed0cbacked No | 60c | 23.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…fd5ebacked No | 61c | 23.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 68c | 20.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…3405backed No | 59c | 20.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 58c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…1327backed No | 61c | 19.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax beat Galatasaray?this page
- Will Galatasaray beat Ajax?No won
- Will the match between Ajax and Galatasaray end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.