Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf41dccd7c2eb42c05f775cb910430fba93af7d235c47872fc8e3bf1ae4c2efe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 966.02$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 27c | 379.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 359.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 309.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 228.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e7…e373backed No | 5c | 215.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 190.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.89 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 10c | 169.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 164.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 159.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 16c | 136.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 133.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 131.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 128.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 124.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 76c | 115.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 65c | 114.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 16c | 112.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 112.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 97.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 18c | 96.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 49c | 95.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 89.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 83.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 82.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 20c | 82.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 74c | 82.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 25c | 71.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 24c | 69.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 59.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 70c | 58.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 70c | 56.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 72c | 55.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 27c | 54.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 50.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 24c | 49.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 46.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 75c | 43.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 24c | 42.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 58c | 38.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 35.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 74c | 32.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 76c | 32.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 31.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 29.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 71c | 27.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 65c | 26.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 75c | 25.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 24.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 74c | 24.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 77c | 23.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 22.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 22.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 20.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 65c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 63c | 19.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadc…89b4backed No | 79c | 12.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.