Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e6edb56232beb6bfb45adbd92a4e0d33f02667285bf94c4fe0509f206ebfcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 480.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 476.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 7c | 380$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 358.43$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.21 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 210.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 9c | 195.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 195.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 172.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 154.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 149.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 138.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 62c | 127.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 127.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…3f8dbacked Yes | 39c | 120.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 120.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 25c | 116.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 114.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 71c | 104.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 79c | 100.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 78c | 97.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 26c | 93.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 91.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 23c | 85.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 23c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 77c | 74.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 33c | 62.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 56.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 56.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 28c | 55.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 25c | 53.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 42c | 52.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…a179backed Yes | 29c | 48.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 47.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 45.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 42.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 78c | 40.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 37.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 79c | 37.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 34.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 33.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 32.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 69c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 46c | 26.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 77c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 80c | 20.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed94…53fcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 65c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 79c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.