Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687a294511374f0d6e3423e55580698972ca587af72c738cd0a193579bcb2ddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 63c | 959.08$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.51 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 748.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 10c | 555.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 33c | 288.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 46c | 205.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 29c | 200.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 73c | 196.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 176.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 165.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 164.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 160.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 28c | 145.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 124.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 44c | 122.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed No | 56c | 120.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 117.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 42c | 108.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 107.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 33c | 98.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4806…3335backed No | 55c | 97.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 56c | 96.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 94.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 94.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 92.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 89.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 86.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 47c | 81.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 81.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 80.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 80.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 37c | 76.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 45c | 75.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 69.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 57c | 66.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 47c | 62.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 62.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed No | 56c | 58.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 44c | 55.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 42c | 51.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…c458backed Yes | 44c | 51.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 63c | 50.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 68c | 50.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 44c | 49.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 48.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 46.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…9c5ebacked No | 53c | 46.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 39c | 45.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 45.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 40.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…e340backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 44c | 37.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 29c | 37.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 57c | 34.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…1d3dbacked Yes | 34c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 43c | 32.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 41c | 30.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 43c | 26.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 57c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 44c | 24.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 56c | 19.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…10fabacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 66c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 68c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 70c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.