MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf7d632086b554460b77676387d28f53b158cbc7741c83cd47c83c932b540b0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 692$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.12 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 584$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 299.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 258.04$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 210$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 209.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 199.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 196.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 192.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 148.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 72.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 72.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 51.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 46.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 39.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 27.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 25.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.