MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943ffcf7ffe7bfc729cf851ef8074fa2afcbd21129e1b492113082d2b0659a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Under | 53c | 84,022$44,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,393.85 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 47c | 55,814$26,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,580.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 48c | 16,022$7,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,331.63 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 6,115$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.68 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 4,798$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Under | 56c | 2,785$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.44 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 60c | 1,813$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.15 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 1,689$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.06 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 44c | 1,485$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 1,347$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.38 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 61c | 1,237$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.24 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 48c | 1,007$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.6 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 996.03$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 952.57$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 780.27$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.03 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 680.6$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 52c | 626.25$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.65 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 578.45$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 344.58$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 49c | 329.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 49c | 327.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.06 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 53c | 275.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 275$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 205.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 48c | 185.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 181$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Over | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 53c | 126.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 61c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 103.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 102.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 48c | 81.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 47c | 78.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 50c | 76.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 73c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 50.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 45c | 49.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 45c | 49.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 55c | 47.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 44c | 43.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…77cabacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 51c | 26.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Under | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ea5abacked Over | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Over | 60c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.