Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf92f556facc8ccd80d70ac441b2434e5c80ab9874215765d9cbf21a08684fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 7c | 341.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 297.54$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 249.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 52c | 224.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 202.86$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 177.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 141.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 121.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 51c | 96.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 93.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 80.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 70.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 67.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 24c | 61.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 43c | 60.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 51.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 51.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 47c | 50.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 47c | 50.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 48.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…4bd3backed Yes | 44c | 45.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 44.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 42.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 40.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 64c | 39.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 30.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 29.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…0657backed Yes | 40c | 29.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 48c | 26.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 25.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 53c | 23.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…11b4backed No | 56c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.