Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46c296720611d72c64f5e31fb4d599d91a218c5286eec5f8d97aec405f80da9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 608$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 329.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 46c | 293.28$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 237$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 224.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 10c | 206.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 123.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 29c | 109.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 105.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…fb8dbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 95.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 26c | 73.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 21c | 71.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 19c | 61.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 25c | 60.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 56.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 55.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 50c | 54.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 52.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 50.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 41c | 48.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 42.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 26c | 40.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 40.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 40.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 36.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 45c | 33.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 49c | 32.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 29.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 80c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 78c | 17.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 14.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 78c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.