Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7aed1aacf8d42301a3c79d792da599bfb07a9c7289481ef5595f5a5f4200880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 524.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 23c | 431.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 314.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 235.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 6c | 203.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 194$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 28c | 185.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 7c | 167.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 164.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 138.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 30c | 135.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 123.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 117.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 77c | 111.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 108.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 57.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 55.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 53.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 19c | 53.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 52.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 51.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 42.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 26c | 38.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 38.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 37.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 77c | 36.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 35.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 77c | 30.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c6…ec7abacked No | 76c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.