Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa33428fd2d8a8720197b1bcd65430677882ee0c566c21a7da3960b31984cf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 4c | 550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 59c | 479.62$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed No | 77c | 401.37$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 77c | 381.57$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed No | 74c | 287.88$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.38 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 243.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 33c | 207.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…4f8bbacked No | 45c | 183.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 24c | 172.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 54c | 169.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 26c | 165.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 20c | 141.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 24c | 140.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 24c | 135.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…ddb7backed No | 29c | 104.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 72c | 101.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 19c | 97.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 66c | 96.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 23c | 92.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 22c | 89.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acb…1e38backed Yes | 29c | 80.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 40c | 76.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 28c | 73.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 42c | 72.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 30c | 71.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 75c | 66.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 63.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 59.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 55c | 56.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes | 76c | 55.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 73c | 54.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 53.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 41c | 53.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 52.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 27c | 51.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 51.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 56c | 50.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…68f8backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…00f4backed No | 38c | 49.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 36c | 49.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 24c | 49.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 56c | 49.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 48.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 47.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 44.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 44.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 78c | 42.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 26c | 42.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 41.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 40c | 40.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 55c | 37.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 78c | 35.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed No | 33c | 34.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 75c | 33.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 62c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 64c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 74c | 32.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…3c21backed No | 76c | 28.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 77cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 60c | 28.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 51c | 24.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…4253backed No | 77c | 20.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d8a1backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 76c | 19.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 75c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed No | 63c | 18.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…3058backed Yes | 58c | 18.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 73c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 76c | 13.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…e7fcbacked Yes | 77c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.