NBA · resolved market
NBA: LA Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks 2024-04-21
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfdac69c32425b0fcf6c24ae2b9e99b70a52939bc5e48990a8f0018a1e2c01af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Clippers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Clippers | 47c | 7,725$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,067.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Mavericks | 52c | 2,856$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.83 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks | 54c | 1,800$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Mavericks | 53c | 1,678$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.41 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 41c | 1,415$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.68 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Mavericks | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Mavericks | 53c | 653$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.09 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Clippers | 52c | 555$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Clippers | 41c | 400$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.33 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…089dbacked Mavericks | 54c | 371.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +172%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Clippers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…d1e3backed Clippers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…8dcabacked Clippers | 42c | 77.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e85…f679backed Clippers | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NBA: LA Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks 2024-04-21this page
- NBA: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat 2024-04-21Celtics won
- NBA: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers 2024-04-21Bucks won
- NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans 24-04-21Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.