NBA · resolved market
NBA: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers 2024-04-21
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd2e1a7e98f03c7539ad713d91f5e5b902f3d762c56624689068a304e3f26eea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Pacers | 57c | 13,356$7,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,625.32 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bucks | 48c | 11,368$5,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,965.29 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Bucks | 73c | 5,442$3,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.47 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Bucks | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Pacers | 50c | 2,807$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.79 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Bucks | 51c | 2,000$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Pacers | 49c | 1,806$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.94 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Pacers | 48c | 1,749$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.52 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Pacers | 51c | 656.54$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.84 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bucks | 61c | 539.55$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.37 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Pacers | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Pacers | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…d1e3backed Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…4c27backed Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…8dcabacked Bucks | 53c | 139.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…3ec3backed Bucks | 48c | 27.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NBA: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers 2024-04-21this page
- NBA: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat 2024-04-21Celtics won
- NBA: LA Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks 2024-04-21Clippers won
- NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans 24-04-21Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.