NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0050677153f7d3726fba130ad47455ce6cdf7d3ca9c711a1883f0559e1b29e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 3,126$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 2,116$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 42c | 2,000$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.51 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 1,991$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.6 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 58c | 904.45$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.58 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 663.56$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 571.52$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 57c | 349.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 22c | 239.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 38c | 199.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 196.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…7c3abacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 61c | 144$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Under | 67c | 118.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 58c | 112.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 40c | 99.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 59c | 94.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked Under | 58c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Under | 58c | 47.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 33.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…60d1backed Under | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 24.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…6908backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Under | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 58c | 21.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 58c | 19.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BucksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.