NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef31925ea0608e81ce7dafd9416483d6eef8323d511b72e48e7c13126c807839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Bucks | 65c | 3,999$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.47 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Timberwolves | 35c | 2,829$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.85 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 26c | 2,433$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Bucks | 55c | 1,819$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 45c | 1,789$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcb…0595backed Timberwolves | 32c | 999$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Timberwolves | 34c | 799.87$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.91 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Timberwolves | 35c | 774.28$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.28 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…f948backed Bucks | 68c | 342$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…27a7backed Bucks | 68c | 332$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…1b8abacked Bucks | 68c | 325$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Timberwolves | 35c | 194.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bucks | 66c | 187.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Timberwolves | 36c | 160.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 65c | 85.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 62c | 74.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Timberwolves | 37c | 64.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…6229backed Timberwolves | 38c | 52.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Bucks | 64c | 48.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Bucks | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bucks | 67c | 39.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 65c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…741cbacked Timberwolves | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bucks | 63c | 30.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Bucks | 65c | 29.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Timberwolves | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks | 62c | 28.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Bucks | 64c | 18.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8f…b038backed Bucks | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BucksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.