NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7c1ee3e2f7b8a3f7bd42e6167b1c295570f165e829e8f80234c02ccc9785a39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 6,628$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,987.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 5,842$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 55c | 1,400$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 1,135$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.76 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 55c | 752$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.4 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 55c | 638.18$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.18 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 523.53$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.53 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 381$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.05 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 51c | 336.63$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 55c | 315$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 285.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 55c | 285$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Under | 45c | 245.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 119.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 55c | 80.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 58c | 70.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 55c | 47.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 43c | 43.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 43c | 39.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Over | 58c | 37.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 43c | 36.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Over | 58c | 34.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Under | 51c | 33.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…60d1backed Over | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad48…4797backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BucksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.