NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4001727e49f6dec83e455bed08a366a74ff505ed35d0936ff81074f2fac907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 50c | 16,767$8,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,435.3 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 14,594$7,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,523.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 51c | 11,176$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,700 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 5,994$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.83 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 49c | 2,169$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 51c | 2,165$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Over | 44c | 1,980$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…4fabbacked Under | 56c | 1,980$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 1,953$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.65 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 1,110$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.79 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 547.09$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.02 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 46c | 525.06$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.53 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 396.08$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.04 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 52c | 380.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 357$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 286.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 280$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 254$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 242.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 237.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 53c | 229.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Under | 12c | 169.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Under | 79c | 100.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Over | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -11.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under | 53c | 94.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 51c | 81.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 46c | 80.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Over | 48c | 71.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Over | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 49c | 60.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c1…a2d1backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 45.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Over | 51c | 44.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 41.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…332abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 47c | 37.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 30.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. BucksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.