Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd00d02c1af8725a89a4d407f94a3f040a1f7d056017a1ecc091f984f768fc5ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed No | 64c | 275.61$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.61 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 7c | 189.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 39c | 168.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 66c | 148.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 13c | 133.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 17c | 126.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed Yes | 78c | 105.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed Yes | 42c | 103.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 68c | 102.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 72c | 98.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…ca2ebacked No | 26c | 97.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 80c | 77.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 66.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 33c | 57.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 35c | 53.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 33c | 52.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 48.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…2356backed No | 59c | 46.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 43.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 26c | 43.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Yes | 79c | 37.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 35c | 36.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 35.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…2b79backed No | 67c | 31.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…22a8backed Yes | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 78c | 28.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…bfb4backed Yes | 76c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 63c | 25.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…1d33backed No | 67c | 24.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…1eedbacked No | 67c | 20.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22f…46f9backed No | 67c | 20.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 65c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.