Cricket · resolved market
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0352cbca5f49cbe2ad5279e4363869baa617ac4afc1e5d5be6309fe4785c331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hobart Hurricanesof Melbourne Renegades, Hobart Hurricanes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Melbourne Renegades | 23c | 2,933$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.82 | 125 | 34.4%43 W · 82 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0b87backed Melbourne Renegades | 17c | 2,526$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.51 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…339abacked Hobart Hurricanes | 73c | 1,931$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.75 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Melbourne Renegades | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Melbourne Renegades | 30c | 1,332$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.94 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Melbourne Renegades | 20c | 1,311$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Melbourne Renegades | 4c | 1,171$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a8b6backed Melbourne Renegades | 32c | 891.33$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.59 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Melbourne Renegades | 22c | 786.22$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Melbourne Renegades | 20c | 702.05$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 763 | 51.6%394 W · 369 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Melbourne Renegades | 31c | 473.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 270 | 54.4%147 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed Hobart Hurricanes | 55c | 381.22$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d67…bf9fbacked Melbourne Renegades | 12c | 371.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…7d7dbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 56c | 310.32$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 328 | 46.3%152 W · 176 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553f…0483backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 308.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Hobart Hurricanes | 58c | 300.57$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 679 | 31.4%213 W · 466 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Melbourne Renegades | 31c | 272.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…500cbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 76c | 207.69$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…719cbacked Melbourne Renegades | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4690…94fbbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 77c | 151.42$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 151 | 51.7%78 W · 73 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Melbourne Renegades | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Hobart Hurricanes | 79c | 144.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…e821backed Hobart Hurricanes | 80c | 135.79$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69b…7b0cbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +20.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…4637backed Melbourne Renegades | 41c | 109.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…62e6backed Melbourne Renegades | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Melbourne Renegades | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…0afabacked Melbourne Renegades | 26c | 97.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd890…5db9backed Melbourne Renegades | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Hobart Hurricanes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Hobart Hurricanes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…f7adbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Melbourne Renegades | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Melbourne Renegades | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…7eb9backed Melbourne Renegades | 47c | 53.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d8…11babacked Melbourne Renegades | 25c | 41.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…9422backed Hobart Hurricanes | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…0c51backed Hobart Hurricanes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…0dffbacked Hobart Hurricanes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Hobart Hurricanes | 75c | 13.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.