UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd04ffe6929c2abd8d8a1ab0e20c41996f9b3749495cf6acbce72442c8d2c2147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 24c | 307.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 75c | 239.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Yes | 19c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…5a44backed Yes | 24c | 82.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba6…8b23backed Yes | 25c | 72.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Yes | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4997…2fc3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims)Rodrigues won
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.