UFC · resolved market
Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c67a158800c8b55477c9edc0771cb25aaa1d5ee96b34d260912f838a4e0a7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 71c | 2,126$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.39 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 33c | 969.69$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 29c | 889.04$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.82 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 69c | 499.89$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Yes | 32c | 313.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 71c | 218$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 71c | 189$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed No | 71c | 173$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked Yes | 31c | 158.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 71c | 143$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 109.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Yes | 29c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Yes | 29c | 93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 28c | 81.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Yes | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed No | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…dd87backed Yes | 30c | 66.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…cb64backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed No | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims)Rodrigues won
- Will Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.