UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e3c0fb09533e6fbbc0c27cbd61fb15aad14d0254c94b2875a6f3c25da1cfd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Yes | 53c | 1,740$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 47c | 1,474$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.1 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 57c | 524.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 47c | 263.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 43c | 230$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed No | 43c | 206.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 43c | 199.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked No | 43c | 171$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed No | 44c | 140$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 43cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…11bebacked Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed No | 43c | 101$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Yes | 57c | 82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Yes | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked No | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Yes | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Yes | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Yes | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed No | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Yes | 54c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Yes | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Yes | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Yes | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 53c | 30.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…79efbacked Yes | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims)Rodrigues won
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.