Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.13 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0731c868585e73c60706838ba0ff071a21bb70eb2646e58f12851ef36e6a21b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 74c | 2,319$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.45 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 22c | 958.73$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.58 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 61c | 886.98$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.74 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 16c | 776.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…110fbacked No | 33c | 630$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226c…7b12backed No | 60c | 600$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed No | 41c | 170.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 20c | 161$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf979…0ebebacked Yes | 10c | 158.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 114.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cd…2576backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 45.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.13 in December?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.08 in December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in December?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in December?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.