Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0a748c9162cde449a49e82d6b7a7bba760b22e43744864495bca0eab8931cc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 255.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 238.13$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 18c | 182.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 36c | 157.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 141.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 132.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 27c | 113.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 22c | 103.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 100.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 83.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 83.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 31c | 82.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 33c | 75.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 74.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 68c | 72.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 69.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 67.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 35c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 20c | 64.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 31c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 34c | 52.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec5…20e0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 45.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 43.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 39.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 36.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 73c | 34.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 33c | 33.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 32c | 32.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 29.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 67c | 27.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…6409backed No | 75c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…3f01backed No | 76c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 76c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.