Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28668f68029dc76c556e876c018648be6bdb762a34c02451032ff98024a6f82a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 619.98$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 406.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 70c | 319.43$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 271.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…4138backed No | 44c | 268.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 74c | 233.34$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 35c | 217.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 21c | 199.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked No | 38c | 164.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 71c | 160.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…8088backed Yes | 64c | 156.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 69c | 152.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 43c | 148.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 147.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 134.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 57c | 122.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 50c | 122.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 118.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 48c | 114.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 67c | 106.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 27c | 99.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 31c | 96.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 95.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 92.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 85.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 81.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 80.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 56c | 79.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 33c | 79.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 75.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 74.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 73.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 62c | 72.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…026dbacked Yes | 61c | 56.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 32c | 56.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 59c | 53.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 52.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 52.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…71d7backed Yes | 51c | 51.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f77…1bfdbacked Yes | 51c | 51.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…4e65backed Yes | 51c | 50.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 39c | 50.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…6042backed Yes | 64c | 46.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…d72fbacked Yes | 51c | 45.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 26c | 45.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…610bbacked Yes | 55c | 45.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 57c | 43.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 46c | 43.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…6a30backed No | 51c | 39.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed Yes | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 48c | 36.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 34c | 35.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 48c | 35.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 43c | 33.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 40c | 32.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 63c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 47c | 28.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 45c | 28.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 27.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 39c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed Yes | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed No | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked Yes | 50c | 22.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 51c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 55c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…6d0abacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…0c60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 77c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 66c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 60c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 71c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.