Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c366759e06d5fb8120c20ed01d63df9b3185a10600ad768cdbb80814a6b346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes | 9c | 28,387$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.26 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…5fcebacked Yes | 3c | 11,687$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…48a9backed Yes | 5c | 9,652$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 5c | 5,438$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc532…3b9dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,174$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 4c | 3,677$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 5c | 1,860$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed Yes | 6c | 1,636$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 9c | 1,600$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Yes | 9c | 1,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 9c | 834.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed Yes | 10c | 715$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 10c | 644.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 14c | 585$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 10c | 350.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 10c | 269.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…1efabacked Yes | 6c | 266.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…b988backed Yes | 6c | 214.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd9…1c2cbacked Yes | 6c | 195.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…2825backed Yes | 10c | 168.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…f98bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 18c | 83.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-23?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.