Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c5652a9ef76daf0f0f3d57851d758da14b0d8e837baabdefb9858c89b38b3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 15c | 15,068$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 13c | 12,323$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.69 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9465…cfeebacked Yes | 20c | 9,992$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,993.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782a…a924backed Yes | 19c | 9,992$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,093.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…2560backed No | 80c | 9,421$7,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,536.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Yes | 68c | 3,638$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 2,462$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.19 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 63c | 1,914$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.22 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 21c | 1,409$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.95 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…8ff3backed Yes | 19c | 1,264$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +226.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5d…ccb7backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…0926backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed Yes | 20c | 945$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…8c33backed No | 80c | 805$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…6291backed Yes | 67c | 673.43$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 20c | 609.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed No | 80c | 480$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 80c | 450.64$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed Yes | 19c | 430$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes | 19c | 383.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.79 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 20c | 255$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 20c | 202.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.63 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…b3cebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…330fbacked No | 80c | 180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f0…10efbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 113$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed No | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…069dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…9ce3backed Yes | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 93.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5098…48debacked No | 77c | 61.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…d982backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…e6aebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…207fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…a12ebacked Yes | 79c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23?No won
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.