TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,143 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb447…62ebbacked No2c1,211$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202065%13 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No12c775.4$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.751,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c368.51$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes62c325.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.047070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes46c308.5$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.3114834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes70c301.41$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4225362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes40c299.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.997628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No23c298.96$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7865625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No7c274.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4334617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No54c257.29$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.11,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes60c250$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No13c224.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.968,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes38c219.55$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3223823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c197.88$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.576,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes68c196.18$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0717338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.994744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes33c160.57$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1758732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes40c159.85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.261,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes53c154.59$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c151.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.893,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No50c130$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.391,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No57c126.91$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.983,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes40c126.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1415133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes71c117.8$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.642250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c116.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.877,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes50c109.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c109.35$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.213,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f4…63d9backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes42c99.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No56c97.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.281,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c96.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes62c87.77$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.541942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes43c87.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1542438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes42c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.411128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes29c77.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7418550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes69c71.06$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.061752.9%9 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c70.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c62.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.64,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c61.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.277,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2230141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes54c60.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8119449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c55.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.243,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes36c55.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.291,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes29c51.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.462,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes32c51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4759818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes70c50.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0610780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x35df…84d2backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3041733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4424569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c46.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.435,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f7…fd31backed No40c45.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0112535.2%44 W · 81 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes39c42.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.793560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes35c38.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2566735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No57c37.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.398160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes40c35.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.719133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes56c35.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe56c…2c11backed Yes43c34.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f9…a005backed Yes44c34.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.293426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc980…4e72backed Yes43c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.385151%26 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-18.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed No61c32.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No60c32.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6347442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.67140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes67c29.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.561,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No58c29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6450…6d3fbacked No49c28.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No44c26.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7214961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d4…0a37backed Yes39c25.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.652479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes47c25.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.331,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No61c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.719058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed No58c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.929160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x241d…be08backed Yes42c23.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.815024%12 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No55c23.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7720942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04da…90e4backed Yes70c22.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No53c22.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.031,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes57c22.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.831442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe03a…439fbacked No72c21.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.718910.6%20 W · 169 L-87.5wins-0.46per pick57cpaid-84%equal weight5-0.41 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No68c21.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.559164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3522454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38c2…7ae0backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.