Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c550e193c35867fb81d146b75785163de459224cdd50464ef5df0e96528e5d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,717 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb43…74bebacked Yes | 0c | 7,271$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…7093backed Yes | 42c | 287.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 37c | 246.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 27c | 244.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 206.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 199.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 66c | 197.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 30c | 196.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 40c | 185$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 27c | 181.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 163.7$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 29c | 154.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 143.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 30c | 101.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 100.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 97.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 97.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 52c | 92.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 87.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 86.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 84.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed No | 61c | 81.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 81.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 64c | 79.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 77.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac62…9ceebacked Yes | 34c | 77.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 69c | 72.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 25c | 70.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 67.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 64.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 56.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 56.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 34c | 50.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…8ce5backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 33c | 44.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 71c | 44.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 34c | 44.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 41.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 40.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…7d7bbacked Yes | 38c | 40.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 25c | 40.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed Yes | 29c | 39.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…3644backed Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 42c | 35.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 37c | 35.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 38c | 31.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…c02cbacked Yes | 37c | 30.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…2019backed No | 60c | 29.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 66c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 22.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 22.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 67c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 74c | 19.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 55c | 18.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…49fdbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.