Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between RB Leipzig and Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0db84960c064c526e7e37e16d86d728fab3ef3ef9108536adacbb3857ef6fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 9c | 7,952$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.68 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 799.98$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 28c | 395$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…9e72backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 34c | 152.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…1090backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…94c4backed No | 71c | 106.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 71c | 80.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 46c | 49.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 37c | 40.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 27c | 37.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between RB Leipzig and Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig beat Aston Villa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.