Champions League · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig beat Aston Villa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x031650160c636920471ba5d9767923662888afe25f3d2410aaa4802981359ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 69c | 12,079$8,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,741.59 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…67c7backed Yes | 34c | 8,494$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 9c | 8,038$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.01 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 31c | 7,091$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 67c | 3,040$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.75 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 68c | 1,954$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 11c | 1,208$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 14c | 1,104$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 72c | 1,035$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.16 | 247 | 52.2%129 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 67c | 1,000$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.62 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Yes | 10c | 904.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 33c | 270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed No | 69c | 145.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 40.3%116 W · 172 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 65c | 94.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…f0afbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…3808backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 39c | 27.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa570…8c4fbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig beat Aston Villa?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
- Will the match between RB Leipzig and Aston Villa end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.